With just four weeks left in the regular season, the New England Patriots remain the heavy favourites to win this year’s Super Bowl, according to the latest model by Nate Silver.
Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior performance, and then simulating the rest of the season thousands of times, Silver determined the probability each team had of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
The Patriots have a 22% chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season but they have company. The Denver Broncos (14%), Green Bay Packers (13%), and Seattle Seahawks (13%) have all jumped at least 5% in recent weeks as each of those teams can make a claim as the best in the NFL right now.
In all, just seven teams still have a realistic chance (at least 5%) of winning this year’s Super Bowl:
- New England Patriots, 22%
- Denver Broncos, 14%
- Green Bay Packers, 13%
- Seattle Seahawks, 13%
- Philadelphia Eagles, 10%
- Arizona Cardinals, 6%
- Cincinnati Bengals, 5%
Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals have fallen from NFC favourites at 19% two weeks ago to just 9% after two straight losses.
At the other end, ten teams have either been eliminated from playoff contention or have less than a 1% chance of making the postseason. These teams include the Jets, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Redskins, Giants, Bears, Vikings, Buccaneers, and Rams.
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