A Hedge Funder's Super Bearish Presentation On US Stocks Is Making Some People Very Angry

infrogmation via FlickrBack in 2008 when the market was in the sewer, Warren Buffett wrote a piece laying out the case for buying American stocks called, “Buy American. I Am.”

Now that the market seems to be going nowhere but up, a hedge fund analyst has posted the exact opposite case for stocks on Sum Zero, a networking site for buy-side researchers.

And users are hating it.

Ben Michaud, an analyst at a large, New England-based investment firm with several billion in AUM, was kind enough to let Sum Zero share his slide deck, entitled “Sell American. I Am.”

Maybe you’ll take to it more kindly than Sum Zero users did. They’ve rated Michaud’s thesis the worst of all time —0.3 out of 100.00.

But perhaps that’s because this isn’t what anyone wants to hear right now.

And for the record, Michaud’s hedge fund does not endorse this thesis, it’s his own independant work.

First, Buffett's case in 2008.

Fast forward to now — everyone's greedy.

So if Buffett's rule still applies, it's time to be fearful.

Bottom line, the S&P is overvalued and we're still in a bear market.

Not even Buffett can say stocks are cheap anymore.

And if you look at other secular bear markets in history...

They last way longer than 5 years.

We're seeing some serious optimism right now.

The Bull Case: Stocks are cheaper than bonds, Europe is relatively calm, and QE is making equity markets stable.

But is QE really that important?

There's evidence to suggests stocks are really being supported by investor sentiment, not QE.

Draghi helped make investors optimistic by removing risk coming from Europe.

But sentiment can change, QE or no.

The risk is still there.

Timing isn't as important as you might think.

All you need to know is that there's room for another bearish run to the downside.

And that historically, this bull market has overstayed its welcome.

Overall, there could be almost four more years of bearishness to come.

So consider levering up.

And going short.

The bears are coming.

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