LONDON — The regions in the UK with the highest proportion of pro-Brexit voters will be worst hit by the economic fallout, according to an academic study.
The economy of London — which voted to stay in the European Union — is better equipped to weather any downturn in European and international trade than UK regions that were pro-Leave, the study said.
“Some 37% of Inner London’s and some 68% of Outer London’s GDP are actually internally generated within Greater London, and again these are the highest of any UK region,” said the report published by the Regional Studies Association.
“In marked contrast, other UK regions that tended to display strong pro-Brexit votes tend to be relatively much more dependent on EU markets for their economic prosperity and viability, and their smaller scale means that they are also likely to be much less resilient in the face of any adverse post-Brexit trade-related shocks,” the study said.
EU trade accounts for little over 7% of London’s GDP, according to the report, “while all other parts of the UK display an economic dependence on EU markets which typically ranges between 25% and 100% higher than that of London.”
Here is the chart:
In the past 10 years the level of local dependence on EU demand has increased in 34 of the UK’s 37 regions, and fallen in only three regions — Inner London, Outer London and Berkshire.
“In other words, while being part of the EU, over 90% of UK regions have experienced deeper integration with the EU since the millennium, unlike London, which has become slightly less dependent on Europe,” researchers Bart Los, Philip McCann, John Springford and Mark Thissen said.
Here’s the map of how people voted in the June referendum:
British Prime Minister Theresa May is set to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and enter talks with EU leaders over the terms of Britain’s departure this month.
May has confirmed that she intends to end Britain’s membership of the European Single Market, remove Britain from the Customs Union, and end the country’s affiliation with the European Court of Justice.
“It is clear leaving the EU single market and customs union is likely to be very challenging for most of the regions that voted to leave, and potentially will lead to interregional inequalities which are even greater than they are now,” the report said.
“Whichever way we look at it, the Brexit vote appears to have made the job of supporting and improving the conditions in the UK’s more deprived areas more difficult.”
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