The First Black Swan Of 2012?

black swan

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

If the Eurozone doesn’t go into a deep recession in 2012, that would probably count as the first black swan of the year.OK, purists might not think this rises to the level of “black swan” — maybe it would just be a “surprise” — but given the assumption that the best case scenario in Europe is a prolonged, deep slump, anything that’s not horrible would be huge, positive, and unexpected.

So far we’ve just gotten a few hints.

Germany’s unemployment rate continues to plummet. U.K. PMI has beat expectations, and a string of positive PMI numbers from the BRICS support the idea that the wheels aren’t falling off the global economy.

Needless to say, it’s still super-early to be making any predictions, but be on the lookout for this wildcard.

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