Wall Street Strategists Have Been Underestimating The Stock Market For Years

Wall Street’s top stock market strategists have been publishing their predictions for 2015.

While every strategist expects to see gains next year, most think those gains will be modest.

However, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee thinks that’s a mistake.

“Be contrarian,” Lee wrote in a new note to clients. He sees the S&P rallying 15% to around 2,325 by the end of 2015.

“We realise that the sceptics are rolling their eyes, believing that everyone is too bullish. But take a look at the history of the Street in forecasting S&P 500 actual returns. For 5 of the last 6 years, the Street has underestimated the market close, with the exception being 2011 (when the budget showdown and S&P downgrade hurt equities).”

According to the data, Wall Street strategists have underestimated where the S&P would go by around 5% on average.

“If 2015’s forecast error is 5% again, the S&P 500 would close at 2325 or higher,” Lee wrote.

Of course, that’s a big “if.”

NOW WATCH: Money & Markets videos

Want to read a more in-depth view on the trends influencing Australian business and the global economy? BI / Research is designed to help executives and industry leaders understand the major challenges and opportunities for industry, technology, strategy and the economy in the future. Sign up for free at research.businessinsider.com.au.