If History Is A Guide, Then The S&P 500 Could Jump To 1419 In 75 Days

Usain Bolt

Photo: José Goulão via Flickr

It was only a few days ago that the S&P 500 hit a low of 1,278 on June 4, after being north of 1,400 for much of early spring.And now the the S&P is back above 1,300.

So was June 4 the low?

If so, then we could see a sharp rally over the next two and a half months, writes Sam Stovall in his latest Stovall’s Sector Watch.

Stovall, S&P Capital IQ’s Chief Investment Strategist and noted market historian, is never short of stats.  Here’s what he wrote 2 days ago:

If this summer swoon is truly over, the S&P 500 will have recorded its 55th pullback (decline of 5.00%-9.99%) since WWII, missing “correction” status by a mere six basis points. In addition, should the recovery time from this pullback be similar to prior recoveries, and there’s no guarantee it will, the S&P 500 could surpass its 1419 April 2 closing high in 77 calendar days (the average recovery time for all pullbacks in excess of -8%).

The key phrase is actually “there’s no guarantee it will.”  Anyone who follows Stovall knows he always offers the caveat: “As always, remember history is a guide, but never gospel.”

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