Photo: José Goulão via Flickr
It was only a few days ago that the S&P 500 hit a low of 1,278 on June 4, after being north of 1,400 for much of early spring.And now the the S&P is back above 1,300.
So was June 4 the low?
If so, then we could see a sharp rally over the next two and a half months, writes Sam Stovall in his latest Stovall’s Sector Watch.
Stovall, S&P Capital IQ’s Chief Investment Strategist and noted market historian, is never short of stats. Here’s what he wrote 2 days ago:
If this summer swoon is truly over, the S&P 500 will have recorded its 55th pullback (decline of 5.00%-9.99%) since WWII, missing “correction” status by a mere six basis points. In addition, should the recovery time from this pullback be similar to prior recoveries, and there’s no guarantee it will, the S&P 500 could surpass its 1419 April 2 closing high in 77 calendar days (the average recovery time for all pullbacks in excess of -8%).
The key phrase is actually “there’s no guarantee it will.” Anyone who follows Stovall knows he always offers the caveat: “As always, remember history is a guide, but never gospel.”