Morgan Stanley has released the stocks its analysts think could lose more than half their value in the next 12-18 months.
These “secularly challenged stocks,” as the bank calls its Wednesday report, are quite diverse, but a major portion of the list are retail chains. The industries Morgan Stanley analysts are most bearish on span from mall-based clothing stores like Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle, to big box chains like Target, and even financial services companies like Western Union.
“Our economics team’s longtime base case of a synchronous global recovery, modest increases in inflation pressures, and a gradual removal of monetary policy accommodation has now been embraced, by and large, by the consensus.”
While the report is quite pessimistic, it’s important to note that the possible drops are analysts’ bear cases, or worst-case scenarios for the companies.
To compile the list, Morgan Stanley’s equity research team started with the full list of stocks its analysts rate as underweight. The bank then focused on stocks with an “unfavorable risk-reward skew,” looking for stocks where the cons outweighed the pros.
Here are the 19 stocks Morgan Stanley says stand to lose the most from secular pressures in the next 12-18 months:
Ticker: TEN
Sector: Consumer Discretionary/Industrials
Downside to bear: 53.1%
Market cap: $US3.41 billion
Year-to-date performance: +0.03%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: BWA
Sector: Consumer Discretionary/Industrials
Downside to bear: 54%
Market cap: $US11 billion
Year-to-date performance: +28.93%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: UPS
Sector: Transportation
Downside to bear: 54.1%
Market cap: $US103.8 billion
Year-to-date performance: +3.03%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: AEO
Sector: Retail
Downside to bear: 55.6%
Market cap: $US2.39 billion
Year-to-date performance: -10.35%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: MYGN
Sector: Healthcare
Downside to bear: 57.0%
Market cap: $US2.41 billion
Year-to-date performance: +98.94%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: JNPR
Sector: Technology
Downside to bear: 57.7%
Market cap: $US9.90 billion
Year-to-date performance: -14.1%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: CBL
Sector: Property
Downside to bear: 58.3%
Market cap: $US2.01 billion
Year-to-date performance: -28.39%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: WDR
Sector: Financial
Downside to bear: 61.1%
Market cap: $US1.72 billion
Year-to-date performance: +0.15%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: NSC
Sector: Transportation
Downside to bear: 62.3%
Market cap: $US38.26 billion
Year-to-date performance: 20.28%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: IMPV
Sector: Technology
Downside to bear : 62.0%
Market cap: $US1.51 billion
Year-to-date performance: +13.16%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: TEVA
Sector: Healthcare
Downside to bear: 66.4%
Market cap: $US18.76 billion
Year-to-date performance: -62.86%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: AXL
Sector: Consumer Discretionary/Industrials
Downside to bear: 67.9%
Market cap: $US2.08 billion
Year-to-date performance: -6.57%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: DSW
Sector: Retail
Downside to bear: 70.6%
Market cap: $US1.50 billion
Year-to-date performance: -0.71%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: BIVV
Sector: Healthcare
Downside to bear: 71.8%
Market cap: $US6.52 billion
Year-to-date performance: 30.51%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: HA
Sector: Transportation
Downside to bear: 73.6%
Market cap: $US2.18 billion
Year-to-date performance: -35.98%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: CSLT
Sector: Healthcare
Downside to bear: 54.1%
Market cap: $US327.28 million
Year-to-date performance: -14.14%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: ANF
Sector: Retail
Downside to bear: 85.5%
Market cap: $US921.19 million
Year-to-date performance: +17.96%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: CAR
Sector: Consumer Discretionary/Industrials
Downside to bear %:
Market cap: $US3.41 billion
Year-to-date performance: +9.75%
Source: Morgan Stanley
Ticker: GOGO
Sector: Telcom services
Downside to bear: 90.6%
Market cap: $US924 million
Year-to-date performance:+5.54%
Source: Morgan Stanley
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