BofA Merrill Lynch chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett — the one who
coined the term “Great Rotation”— takes a gloomy view of the future in his latest note to clients:
The Next 5 Years: Curb Your Enthusiasm
Significant monetary stimulus, the end of fiscal austerity, a booming housing market, a cheap dollar, record corporate cash balances…if the US economy does not significantly accelerate in coming quarters, it never will. We assume it will, and favour assets (e.g. equities), sectors (e.g. banks) and markets (e.g. Europe) that have lagged in the “High Liquidity-Low Growth” world of recent years.
Asset price will not do as well in the next 5 years, no matter what the “nouveau bulls” say. Central banks will be less generous, corporations less selfish. And when excess liquidity is removed it will get “CRASHy”. The dollar and (temporarily) volatility will be the last assets to surge as Deleveraging ends and an era of Normalization begins.
In short, don’t expect stocks to go on an awesome tear over the next few years as they have in the past few years, beware of a market crash, and watch developments in the U.S. economy closely.
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