Dave Lutz, head of ETFs at JonesTrading, has an overview of today’s markets.
- Hurricane Irma is heading toward the US and is currently a Category 3. Damage estimates from Harvey have topped $US100 billion.
- The jobs report is released this morning, check here for the results.
- Global markets, excluding China, are all green this morning.
Morning! Quiet ahead of Payrolls (Street at 180k) and the 3day weekend, with cautious eyes looking East where IRMA becomes a Cat 3. S&P up 20bp and QQQs adding to all-time highs early. Strong markets over in Europe, where the DAX is up 70bp as Banks lead to the upside, Autos jumping on Volvo headers and Media rallying behind Vivendi. In London, FTSE up 25bp, led by the Miners jumping. Volumes are abysmal as most exchanges pacing 35% light to trend. In Asia, Nikkei climbed 20bp led by Energy – Hang Seng off small, but Macau names loved JPM – China up 20bp – KOSPI ended in the red, and Aussie up small as Healthcare outperformed. Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines were closed for holiday.
The DXY drifts near Thursday’s lows despite Fed Funds at 33% for December, up from 30% yesterday. Seeing some nice selling in Bunds, but the move in Treasuries more muted. All eyes were on Japan, where their JGB 10’s closed with a negative yield — a first since last November. The Euro is trying to hold $US1.19 into the ECB next week as EU Manufacturing comes in better, while Sterling trying to hold $US1.29. China Steel Futures Surged 4.5% to a Record on supply disruptions — Rebar up 3.4% and Ore just under 2% – Helping Copper climb small early, while Gold is enjoying the drop in the dollar still. Gasoline retreating 1% Post-Expiry, and WTI dropping 80bp, double the losses in Brent. Natty is unch, holding yesterday’s gains.
On Jobs today, seems Peeps eyeballing a miss in NFP. GS Stays at 160k saying Hard to model back-to-school seasonality, while I read “August hiring missed expectations each of the past six years, only to be revised upward in five of those months” — Bespoke Notes ADP has overstated NFP by average 47k in reports YTD — IFR said “ADP has overstated private payrolls growth in each of the last three Augusts, by an average 57k” – but does the print even matter after Harvey???
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