Dave Lutz, head of ETFs at JonesTrading, has an overview of today’s markets.
- Global markets are mostly green.
- Trump is set to give a speech about his new tax plan.
- Most traders think the Fed will raise rates in December, a dramatic turnaround from the beginning of the month.
Morning! US Futures climbing, with Russell up 30bp as Hawkish Positioning from Yellen yesterday continues, with focus now on Trump’s Tax speech just after 3pmET. Havens remain under sharp pressure, with Swissie falling to 7week lows. It’s all Green overseas, as the DAX climbs 50bp — with Fins leading to upside and Transports and Industrials acting well behind Alstom / Siemens headers. In London, FTSE loves the weaker Pound, with Miners acting well and Consumer starting to rally behind strong UK Retail Sales data. Tech had a nice rebound in Asia – Shanghai up small and Hang Seng up 50bp as Chinese Property names rebounded – Taiwan rebounded 70bp – KOSPI off small, but KOSDAQ up 1% – Aussie off small as Insurers weighed — while Sensex down over 1% on reports of military action near the Indo-Myanmar border. In Japan, TOPIX hit for 50bp as Utilities as over 10000 stocks had divvy payouts
Fed Funds for December at a 84% chance for December, up from 73% Pre-Yellen and 37% at the start of September – Bund Yields are nearing 2month highs, and JGB yields squirted higher overnight. That “Policy Sensitive” 2YY getting upside 8Y highs this AM, and the US 10YY touched 2.3% before retreating. The Dollar is at 1month highs as Euro firmly under $US1.18 and Pound approaching $US1.34. Yen has dropped near 3month lows. In China Ore popped almost 2% as Mill Stocking accelerated, which has Copper finally showing some upside followthru, climbing 1%. Haven selling and $ rally has smashed Gold back under $US1300. Brent is off small as Euro traders shrug off the Kurdistan Independence Vote — while WTI bid as API showed a surprise draw overnight.
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