10 things you need to know before the opening bell

Here is what you need to know.

A key recession indicator is getting close to the danger zone. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields is trading at 62 basis points, the tightest its been since the period leading up to the Great Financial Crisis.

3 things could destroy one of the greatest stock market rallies of all time. Extreme leverage, exuberant sentiment and excessive policy tightening are the three things that could derail the third longest bull market of all time, according to Morgan Stanley.

The speed of the Republican tax bill is angering Democrats and increasing the odds it passes. The unusual speed of the legislative push for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is raising analyst and Wall Street economist expectations for the bill’s chances of passing and creating distinct fault lines on Capitol Hill.

Mugabe refuses to step aside. Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe refused to step down on Monday, saying he would preside over his party’s congress next month, Reuters reports.

Merkel’s coalition talks break down. Talks about forming a three-party coalition government in Germany dissolved after the free-market liberal Free Democratic Party pulled out on Sunday, forcing Chancellor Angela Merkel to form a minority coalition or hold fresh elections just months after the last election.

One chart shows how terrible a decision it has been to bet against Amazon. “I still am struck by just how dramatic that impact is for investors,” said Ken Allen, a portfolio manager of the $US5 billion Science and Technology Fund at T. Rowe Price. “If you owned Amazon, you did great. If you owned a traditional retailer, you did horrible. If you did both, you did really really well.”

Barron’s says IBM could finally see some gains. IBM shares could climb 30% over the next year as they’re trading well below the S&P 500 on a price-to-earnings basis, Barron’s says.

Stock markets around the world trade mixed. Japan’s Nikkei (-0.6%) trailed in Asia and France’s CAC (+0.31%) leads in Europe. The S&P 500 is set to open down 0.14% near 2,575.

Earnings reports trickle out. Agilent Technologies, Intuit and Palo Alto Networks are among the names reporting their quarterly results after markets close.

US economic data is light. The CB Leading Index will be released at 9 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is unchanged at 2.34%.

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