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Markets are giving back all of their gains.Earlier today, we learned that weekly initial jobless claims fell to 369k, which was better than the 370k expected. However, last week’s number was revised up to 392k from 388k.
The September durable goods orders report came in better than expected largely due to aircraft orders. The headline number jump 9.9 per cent, which was better than the 7.5 per cent economists were looking for. Excluding transportation, orders climed 2.0 per cent versus expectations for a 0.9 per cent gain.
But core capex orders (i.e. nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) was flat versus the expectation for 0.2 per cent growth.
Core capex orders is David Rosenberg’s favourite recession indicator. So the miss is not welcome news.