From MKM Partners’ Jonathan Krinsky: “There are likely different explanations for this, and while the results span 130 years, the actual number of samples is quite small. With that said, the results are quite remarkable. Since 1885, there have been 13 years ending in “five.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been up 12 of 13 times, for an average return of over 28%. Only 2005 closed down, and it was a modest -0.61%. The SPX was up 3% in 2005. As you can see below, the average returns for the DJIA in years ending in five are 4x the average year. Of course we would never recommend an investment strategy based solely on this phenomenon, but it certainly doesn’t hurt the bull case.”
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