It will be interesting to watch the August data roll in to see how the market crash from the first two weeks impacted the real economy.
There are more and more signs that it’s had at least some effect.
Yesterday a survey from Goldman showed a 1.5% decline in retail sales in the week ending August 15 compared ot the week before.
And now there’s evidence of a housing market impact.
“Unprecedented volatility in the stock market last week amid additional signs that the economy has slowed led to further drops in mortgage rates, with the 15-year rate reaching a new low for the MBA survey,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Purchase application activity fell sharply over the previous week, likely the result of potential homebuyers hesitant to purchase in this highly volatile and uncertain environment.”
Tiny datapoints, but potentially significant. Will be interesting to revisit next week.