Not so fast.
In a note Monday, Stifel’s Barry Bannister wrote that rising confidence in the global economy could lift the S&P 500 to 2,350 in the second half of the year.
“Though we continue to see flat S&P 500 EPS in 2015 due to energy and dollar effects, we have not seen the complacency, euphoria or interest rates we associate with market tops, and we expect a late bull
market P/E expansion to lift the index to our 2,350 target price.”
Bannister wrote that although the strong dollar and weak overseas growth has weighed down 2015 earnings per share, reflation, and a pick up in growth abroad will lift the price-to-earnings ratio.
He added that excluding the energy sector, EPS is actually fairly strong.
“Looking ahead, our view is that if world GDP turns up then EPS relief from the dollar may follow. The dollar strengthens when foreign GDP growth is weak and vice versa. As major
country leading indicators turn up, we see the dollar losing lift, helping EPS reaccelerate.”
It also helps earnings that the Federal Reserve proceeds cautiously in raising interest rates, while central banks in the eurozone and Japan ease policy, and China works to heal its economy.
“Investor memories of 2008-09 may be exaggerating what is simply an EPS pause while global GDP regains traction.”
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