The hottest story in tech is the possibility of Apple truly entering the television market with an iTV of some sort.The story has kicked up again because Jobs told his biographer that he “finally cracked” a simple interface for a television.
It sounds promising, but breaking into the television industry is not so simple.
Jobs has also said of the TV market, “It’s not a problem of technology, it’s not a problem of vision, it’s a fundamental go-to-market problem.”
With that in mind, we’ve decided to take a look back at quotes from Steve Jobs, and Apple’s current CEO Tim Cook, on the TV market.
Jobs has been thinking about this problem for years.
In this fuzzy video, Jobs explains what's wrong with 'convergence' of the TV and the PC. The TV is used when we want to turn off our brains. The PC is used when we want to turn on our brains. The TV is for leaning back. The PC is for leaning in. How do you make these two gadgets play nice when they're designed for two totally different uses?
And here's a loose transcription of his conversation: 'Your television is going to make toast. What is the most successful consumer product in the last 10 years? It's the PC. Here's all these PC companies running around looking for a consumer product when that's what they make! Right?
It's the most successful consumer product of the last 10 years, so naturally we want to combine it with the television. I've spent enough time in entertainment now with Pixar, and with Disney, who's just a terrific company to work with, by the way, is that people go to their television primarily to turn their brain off. I used to think like many of you might have thought that there was this giant conspiracy from the networks to but mediocrity on television and dumb us down, did you ever think that? I thought that. It thought that was giant conspiracy to rob the American populace of their mind if not their soul. I think found out the truth which is far more depressing. The networks give people precisely what they want. The reason people want this stuff. They come home from a long day. They have dinner with their kids and they're fighting and they get them into bed and they just want to turn their brain off for half an hour. Do you ever do that? I mean, I must admit I don't watch much TV, but I can admit I will turn on the TV for a half hour, and it really does turn your brain off. People got to their TV to turn their brain off. People go to their PC to turn their brain on. These things aren't going to be together, they perform completely separate functions. So I think it's as crazy as other combinations you can imagine. And I don't think it's going to happen, you know.
I also think people want to interact with their computers. Keyboards, mice, up close better resolutions, they want to sit back from their televisions. Web TV has been an utter failure so far, so I just do see it happening. Now, sure, everybody would like a better online TV guide, ok. Sony should build in an online TV guide to their TV sets, I grant you that. But is this digital convergence? So, that's what I think of it.'
It wasn't. The $299 Apple TV box didn't sell very well. But, Jobs never pretended it was going to be a huge seller.
Speaking at the All Things D conference in 2007, Jobs said, 'The reason I call it a hobby, is that a lot people have tried and failed to make that a business. Everyone from TiVo to Microsoft, you know, everybody's tried and it's a hard problem. And so, we're trying. It's a business that's hundreds of thousands of units a year, but it hasn't really crested to be millions of units per year. But I think if we work on it and improve things over the next year, 18 months, we can crack that.'
Jobs said, 'What people wanted was, movies, movies, movies.' He made Apple TV a standalone device that could rent movies.
On the company's fourth quarter earnings call, he said, 'Well again, I think the whole category is still a hobby right now. I don't think anybody has succeeded at it and actually the experimentation has slowed down. A lot of the early companies that were trying things have faded away. So, I'd have to say that given the economic conditions, given the venture capital outlooks and stuff, I continue to believe it will be a hobby in 2009.'
Four months later, Steve Jobs delivered his next great speech on the topic at All Things D's D8 conference
If you want to watch the video, here it is. We're going to peel out the most important takeaways and quotes in the next few slides...
And here's a loose transcript we jammed out watching this video: 'The problem with innovation in the television industry is the go to market strategy. The television industry fundamentally has a subsidized business model that gives everybody a set top box for free, or for $10 a month. And that pretty much squashes innovation because no one is willing to buy a set top box. Ask TiVo. Ask Replay TV. Ask Roku, Ask Vudu, Ask us, Ask Google in a few months. Sony's tried, panasonic's tried, we've all tried. So, all you can do is add a box onto the TV system. You can say … i'll add another little box with a noter one You end up with a table full of remotes, cluster full of boxes, bunch of UIs. The only way that's ever gonna change is if you really go back toy square one and you tear up the set top box and design it with a consistent UI and deliver it to the customer in a way they're willing to pay for it. right now there;s no way to do that. so that's the problem with the TV market.
we decided, do we want a better tv or a better phone? the phone won out because there was no way to get it to market. what do we want more? a better tablet or a better tv? well, probably a better tablet. but it doesn't matter because there's no way to get a tv to market. The tv is going to lose until there is a viable go to market strategy, otherwise you're just making another TiVO.
That make sense?
It's not a problem of technology, it's not a problem of vision, it's a fundamental go-to-market problem.
There isn't a cable operator that's national, there's a bunch of operators. And it's not like there's GSM, where you build a phone and it works in all these other countries. No every single country has different standards. It's very 'tower of babble-ish', not that's not the right word. Balkanized. I'm sure smarter people than us will figure this out. But when we say Apple TV is a hobby, that's why we use that phrase. '
But, couldn't Apple work with a cable operator for TV like it did with AT&T for the iPhone? No says Jobs.
'There isn't a cable operator that's national, there's a bunch of operators. And it's not like there's GSM, where you build a phone and it works in all these other countries. No every single country has different standards. It's very 'tower of babble-ish', not that's not the right word. Balkanized. I'm sure smarter people than us will figure this out. But when we say Apple TV is a hobby, that's why we use that phrase.'
When he revealed the $99 Apple TV he revealed some more thoughts on the TV market. Here's what Apple had learned after four years in the market:
'The number 1, 2, and 3 thing they want is they want Hollywood movies and TV shows whenever they want them. It's that simple. It's not really that complicated. They want Hollywood movies and TV shows. They don't want amateur hour, they want professional content.
And they want everything in HD. The HD revolution is over. It happened, HD won. Everybody wants HD.
They like to pay lower prices for content, right. The lower the prices, the more they're going to watch.
They don't want a computer on their TV. They have computers. They go to their wide screen TVs for entertainment, not to have another computer. This is a hard one for people in the computer industry to understand. But it's really easy for consumers to understand.
They don't want to manage storage. When you buy a bunch of movies and tv shows you have to manage them cause to don't want to just throw them away, you just bought them. And so you have storage management problems. Your hard disc starts to fill up, what are you going to do? People don't want to think about managing storage, they just want to watch movies and TV shows.
And they don't want to sync to a computer. Most of them haven't even figured out what that is. They want to pull some content off their computer, but they don't want this syncing stuff, it's too complicated.
And they want whatever hardware we have to be silent, cool, and small.'
The Apple TV sold well, but it was still a hobby. rumours circulated about an Apple television, but we didn't hear anything until ...
As with all things Apple, it's difficult to parse what's going to happen.
If it happens, and that's a big if, we expect an Apple TV to be an integrated all in one package that can deliver a better user interface for the same cable we've always known. It will have a few applications. It will be low priced.
Apple's entry into the TV market will seem evolutionary, not revolutionary at first glance because it won't be a PC, and it won't blow up old models. Jobs said that wouldn't work.
It will be subtly disruptive just like the iPad.