In the current market it seems all you need to pay attention to is the opening to know where stocks are going to close.
According to Bespoke Investment Group, the intraday trading range for the S&P 500 — that is, the range between the highest and lowest point stocks trade during the day — has been the tightest over the past 50 days of any period going back to when their intraday database started in 1984.
“In a post on Monday, we noted that the average intraday range for the S&P 500 over the last 50 trading days had reached its second narrowest level on record, and that if the S&P 500 did not trade in a range of more than 1% on Tuesday that it would be the narrowest average range in a 50-trading day period on record,” said Bespoke in a note.
“Well, in Tuesday’s trading the S&P 500’s intraday range came in at just 0.37%, pushing the 50-day average intraday high/low range down to 0.523%, which is the lowest level since at least 1983 when our historical database begins.”
Not only has the average intraday range been incredibly low, but the S&P 500 has gone 50 days without an intraday range of more than 1% said Bespoke, well over the previous record streak of 34 days in the mid-1990s.
Over that time period, the VIX index — which measures the volatility of the S&P 500 — has stayed relatively range-bound as well between 10.5 and 13, well below its long-term average.
As Bespoke concluded,”Now, that’s a lack of volatility!”