The Victorian and the ACT economies continued to outperform at the end of 2016, with all other states and territories — including New South Wales — growing below their historic trend.
That’s the news to come from the latest “Stateometer”, released by the ANZ Bank on Wednesday, with economic activity across the country remaining steady, but subdued, during November.
This chart from ANZ shows how each state and territory performed during the month:
Any state and territory located on the top half of the chart is growing above trend while anything in the bottom half is growing below trend. On the bottom axis, anything on the left suggests that economic activity is slowing while anything on the right says its accelerating.
It paints a fairly subdued picture of how the Australian economy is performing, with no state or territory growing above trend and accelerating right now.
Indeed, most are located in the bottom left quadrant, indicating that growth is below trend and decelerating further.
Not the best of news, particularly after the economy just suffered its largest quarterly contraction since the global financial crisis.
The Stateometer uses trends across 37 individual economic indicators covering business and household activity, the labour market, the housing market and trade to gauge how each individual state and territory is performing compared to its historic norms.
ANZ says that it is correlated with broader quarterly measures of economic activity, such as state final demand, but is not designed to forecast the figures found within Australia’s GDP report.
Earlier this week, Commsec released it’s quarterly “State of the States” report — another gauge on economic performance using a smaller number of data inputs — which ranked NSW, Victoria and the ACT as the best performing states and territories in Australia right now.
So similar to ANZ’s Stateometer, with the exception of NSW, Australia’s most populous and economically powerful state.
On NSW, Jo Masters and Giulia Lavinia Specchia, economists at ANZ, said that a moderation in labour market indicators is contributing to the states recent underperformance.
“The recent pickup in the housing market — with elevated auction clearance rates and strong house price inflation — will likely contribute in lifting growth over the coming months helping to offset the moderation in labour markets,” they wrote.
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