How 'Spring Break' Hit Today's Jobless Claims Report

A24Earlier today, we learned that initial weekly jobless claims surged to 385k, up 28k from a week ago.

This was much higher than the 353k expected by economists.

However, this week’s number was hit by an unusual number of seasonal factors.

From TD Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg:

We caution against reading too much into the jump, however, given that a confluence of special factors has pushed the number higher this week. The labour department noted that the Easter holiday and spring break added to claims volatility and that two states were estimated due to the Easter holiday. It is worth noting that some schools lay off employees during the spring break holiday, helping to explain the spike in the series during this week. To make matters worse, the seasonal adjustment for this week is the most unsupportive since early-September. Seasonal adjustments will become more supportive over the coming several weeks, and we expect that a significant portion of the latest jump in claims will be retraced over the next few weeks.

“The murky reading should have no impact on Friday’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payroll report,” added Goldberg.

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