Below is a look at the relationship between point differential* (points scored – points allowed) in the last three preseasons, and how many games those teams won during the regular season. And what we see is that there is almost no correlation at all (R2=0.03; 0=no correlation, 1=perfect correlation).
That’s good news for Jets fans who are panicking over their team’s 0-3 preseason record, and an offence that has yet to score a touchdown. As a team, the Jets have been outscored by 39 points in the three games and if they lose their final game, that number will jump to at least 40.
The bad news is, only six teams in the last three years have been outscored by 40+ points in the preseason. The good news is, four of those teams went on to win at least eight games. And only one lost more than nine.
* Point Differential tends to be a better indicator of how a team will play in the future. Data via Pro-Football-Reference.com
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