These Are Not Good Charts For Spain

If you haven’t been paying attention to Spain, here are two quick charts to get you up to speed.

First, here’s a look at the IBEX, the main stock market index going back a year.

Note that it’s been falling sharply lately, and is getting fairly closed to November lows.

chart

Photo: Bloomberg

And then the 10-year yield after falling sharply earlier, is ticking higher again.

chart

Photo: Bloomberg

As for the economic reality, Citi’s Willem Buiter predicted that Spain would need outside help sometime this year.

He cited several factors in his analysis:

  • Debt to GDP is worse than official numbers originally stated.
  • Growth is much worse than people expected.
  • Real estate has a lot more to fall, perhaps even double its latest fall.
  • The government’s commitment to reform is not as sharp as it needs to be.

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