S&P Capital IQ’s Sam Stovall, the unofficial historian of the S&P500, says an imminent pull-back of the index is unlikely — mostly because we already saw a sharp decline earlier this spring.
Between May 22 and June 24 of this year, the index dipped nearly 6% before coming back.
And here’s how often there have been double-dips in the same year, per Stovall:
Since 1945, the S&P 500 saw the start of a decline in excess of 5% during 33 of the 67 summers (the five-month period of May through September).
However only four times — 1967, 1986, 1999, and 2009 — did the S&P 500 begin a decline of 5% or more twice.
So while there is no reason the S&P 500 could not endure a fifth summer of back-to-back declines, the likelihood of avoiding a double dip are encouraging at more than 87%.
Seems like decent odds.
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