This is a chart we’ve written a ton about over the years.
The blue line is the S&P 500. The red line is the inverse of initial jobless claims.
For over 5 years, they’ve moved in virtual lockstep, and they’re doing it again. Lately the improvement on initial jobless claims has stalled out, and the rally in the S&P 500 has stalled out.
It alone is a good reason to think that fundamentals, not central banks, are what’s driving this market.