Are we or aren’t we in a stock market bubble?
To answer that question, some folks point straight to the stock market, which is currently at an all-time high.
However, the nature of the current rally is very different compared to the rallies going into the 2000 and 2007 peaks.
RBC Capital Market’s Jonathan Golub included this interesting chart in his latest research note.
“From time to time, investor euphoria toward a narrow group of stocks can put the broad market at risk,” noted Golub. “This was clearly the case in the late 1990s with Technology stocks.”
“Investors have recently raised concerns about the performance, and bubble-like behaviour, of a narrow group of stocks (i.e., Internet and Biotech names, Amazon, Chipotle),” he added. “However, when we look at the performance dispersion across the S&P 500, the market’s behaviour seems quite normal.”
While this metric doesn’t have a lot of historical precedent, it’s interesting.
Golub expect the S&P 500 to hit 1,950 in 2014.
For what it’s worth, here’s his chart…
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