In 2015, every big strategist on Wall Street expects the S&P 500 to rise.
Some strategists see the benchmark index adding just a few percentage points this year, while others expect the S&P to extend its three-year streak of double-digit gains.
But in a new note to clients Jared Woodard, equity derivatives strategist at BGC Partners, focuses not on where Wall Street’s soothsayers expect the S&P to go but on where the options market says it could go.
And for 2015, there is a wide target, ranging from 1,691.92 to 2,416.68.
“Point forecasts impose false precision; we tend instead to think in fuzzy ranges,” Woodard writes.
“The deviations higher and lower we collectively imply through option market bidding strike a tractable balance between the need for discernible forecasts and honesty about epistemic vagueness.”