Every quarter, JP Morgan Funds’ David Kelly produces a fantastic presentation on the markets and the economy. And in recent quarters, he has included this chart on S&P 500 inflection points.
It tracks the S&P 500 since the 1990s as it made its way through two bubble and two crashes.
The third and current rally in this chart always seemed more reasonable as it was accompanied by a cheaper price-earnings ratio and a higher dividend yield.
But with the stock market continuing to rally, valuations have gotten richer and are getting closer to levels that preceded the last downturn.
The question on everyone’s mind is how much higher can we go before we see the next inflection point.