“As always, remember history is a guide, never gospel,” says stock market historian Sam Stovall.
With that in mind, we consider the latest weekly market commentary from LPL Financial’s Jeff Kleintop.
“It has been a summer of love for the stock market,” writes Kleintop. “As the temperatures heated up, so did the stock market. From June 24 to August 2, 2013, the S&P 500 Index rose 9%, pushing stocks up about 20% for the year. The last time we saw stocks perform the way they have this year in both pattern and magnitude was 1967.”
Kleintop identifies 8 similarities between 1967 and 2013. Here’s four:
- “Bond yields rose over the course of 1967, but most notably from April to August when the 10-year Treasury note rose about one percentage point — similar to this year’s move over the same time period.”
- “Gross domestic project (GDP) averaged a lackluster 2% in the first half of 1967, not too far from the 1.4% growth seen in 2013’s first half.”
- “Recent events still bring forth faint echoes of the race and gender equality struggles of 1967.”
- “The National Security Agency’s (NSA) Project MINARET began in 1967, intercepting electronic communications of U.S. citizens without warrants or judicial oversight. This controversial program can be compared with the revelations in 2013 regarding NSA spying on U.S. citizens.”
“It can be dangerous to look back selectively,” warns Kleintop. “Of course, there are lots of differences between now and 46 years ago, and there is no assurance that stocks will continue to follow the 1967 pattern.”
Still, it’s a fun exercise.
“History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme,” said Mark Twain.