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Demographics is a big wild-card in Chinese growth projections. The cliche is that thanks to the country’s one-child policy (no longer really enforced), it will be the first country to get old before it gets rich.The head of sovereign wealth fund CIC, Lou Jiwei, made comments to that effect in a recent speech.
Specifically, according to Bloomberg, he warned of a “big drop” in Chinese growth in just the next 3-4 years, thanks to the retiring elderly, which is earlier than people are expecting a cool down.
The real message: China needs to keep the pedal to the metal regarding growth and urbanization… and that means, if you expect the country to voluntarily limit its exporting power, like Japan did at the Plaza Accord in the 80s, you’re nuts.