The World's 10 Biggest Sovereign Default Risks

5/5 greece riot

Photo: PIAZZA del POPOLO

With all the talk about Greece, investors may have forgotten that there are other serious default risks in the world.CMA Datavision put together a list of the countries most likely to default, and there are some big names here which may be a part of your emerging markets portfolio.

The list was calculated utilising CDS numbers, but looking closely at the volatility of that CDS to see which countries experienced the most dramatic percentage changes.

CMA refers to it as “Cumulative Probability of Default”, meaning that it is the immediate likelihood of the country experiencing a default scenario.

Region of Sicily Cumulative Probability of Default: 21.76%

Source: CMA Datavision

Photo: Cabrillo.edu

Republic of Latvia Cumulative Probability of Default: 23.06%

Source: CMA Datavision

Iraq Cumulative Probability of Default: 23.61%

Dubai Cumulative Probability of Default: 26.41%

Source: CMA Datavision

Portugal Cumulative Probability of Default: 32.16%

Source: CMA Datavision

Ukraine Cumulative Probability of Default: 34.75%

Source: CMA Datavision

Pakistan Cumulative Probability of Default: 38.23%

Source: CMA Datavision

Argentina Cumulative Probability of Default: 47.39%

Source: CMA Datavision

Venezuela Cumulative Probability of Default: 49.51%

Source: CMA Datavision

Greece Cumulative Probability of Default: 51.72%

Source: CMA Datavision

Now check out the countries most at risk from Greek contagion

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