More signs the computer biz is in trouble: Only yesterday Intel (INTC) cut its Q4 revenue guidance by more than 10%, and now AmTech analyst Dinesh Moorjani figures Q4 desktop PC builds — the number of desktop computers that manufacturers will build, not sell — will decline 15% quarter-over-quarter, versus his mid-October guess of a 3% decline.
Our checks with industry contacts in the PC supply chain indicate desktop build plans have deteriorated significantly over the past few weeks…
Among three of the top five motherboard makers in Taiwan, two expect their shipments to decline by 20% Q/Q in 4Q, while a third expects shipments to decline by 10% Q/Q. These three motherboard makers represent ~50% of the overall desktop market.
One bright point: Based on the same investigation, builds of notebooks — a more important growth sector — look to be on track.
Dinesh now thinks PC unit sales will be flat in 2009, down from his previous expecation of 4% year-over-year growth.
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