Something Very Weird Is Happening In The Middle East Markets

We’ve been writing this morning about the crash in the Tadawul All Shares Index (Saudi).

Obviously it’s related to the political turmoil, but what’s interesting is that oil is surging.

This chart from Nomura is from a few days ago, but it shows that up until recently CDS spreads and the price of oil were pretty tightly correlated across the Middle East. It makes sense. Higher oil equals more government revenue, etc. Obviously there’s been a disconnect of late.

middle east CDS oil

Photo: Nomura

If you believe that things will quiet down, some kind of bet that this gap will close might be worth placing.

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