Some NFP Numbers For Your Consideration

Dice/High Stakes

Photo: Flickr/Lucy Boynton

Guessing non-farm payrolls is a total crapshoot. If economic data is news, NFP is the National Enquirer.But it moves the market, so here is the final data to consider when making your estimate in the ForexLive NFP contest.

  • Bloomberg median +140K
  • Reuters median +150K
  • MNI median +130K
  • Prior three months: 200K, 100K, 110K
  • Initial jobless claims four-week moving avg 375.8 vs 374K at the end of Dec.
  • Challenger January job cuts -53.5 vs 18-year avg of -101K
  • Challenger noted that govt layoffs were lower than the recent trend, suggesting an upside to the -15K estimate for government payrolls
  • ISM manufacturing employment component 54.3 vs 54.8 in Dec (six-month avg at 54.1)
  • ADP +170K vs +292K in Dec
  • Chicago PMI employment 54.7 vs 59.2 prior
  • Consumer confidence ‘jobs hard to get’ 43.5% vs 41.6% in Dec
  • My favourite is the ISM non-manufacturing employment component but it won’t be released until next week.

But the number that really matters: the ForexLive contest median estimate — +141K (avg 136K) Share and Enjoy:

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