The world is waiting anxiously for the August U.S. jobs report.
According to Bloomberg, we should expect 180,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unemployment rate of 7.4%.
But the most bullish economist on the street is Societe Generale’s Brian Jones who is look for the payrolls number to eclipse the average of the past three months.
Here’s his commentary:
Our analysis suggests that non-agricultural concerns added an estimated 220,000 net new workers in August, eclipsing the average 175,000-job gain posted over the May-July span and marking the strongest hiring since February. Several factors support our expectation for a well-above-consensus print in the BLS’ report (see table below left). Pointing to a further reduction in pink-slipping during the past month, the average number of persons filing initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits dropped by 12,865 to 333,510 over the five weeks leading up to the August survey — the lowest tally since November 2007. Consistent with a solid pick-up in hiring, the number of persons on all state and federal benefits rolls probably contracted by 120,000 between reference periods — the largest decline in six months. Real business conditions improved between the July and August establishment surveys, with the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADS) Business Conditions Index climbing to its highest level since March. We expect weather conditions to have little, if any, impact on the upcoming report. Temperatures were typical in August, with population-weighted cooling and heating degree days little different from long-term seasonal norms. As a result, we expect the number of persons unable to work because of bad weather to be in line with the 24,000 average posted over the past five years.
The report comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday morning. We’ll cover it live at BusinessInsider.com.
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