Societe GeneraleNo one has a higher estimate.The May jobs report is coming up at 8:30 AM ET.
According to Bloomberg, the consensus estimate for nonfarm payrolls added in May is 165K.
The most bullish economist among those surveyed is Societe Generale’s Brian Jones.
“Nonfarm payrolls likely expanded by 210,000 in May, while the civilian jobless rate dipped to 7.4% – the lowest reading since December 2008,” says Jones.
Here’s more from Jones:
Non-agricultural concerns probably added 210,000 net new workers in May, eclipsing the 196,000 average posted over the prior four months. Fundamental and technical factors point to a significant pickup from the 165,000 workers added in April. The average number of persons filing initial claims for jobless benefits reversed course over the five weeks leading up to the May establishment survey period, falling by 21,000 to 341,000 and completely erasing the rise over the lead-up to the April canvass. Meanwhile, the number of persons receiving state and federal jobless benefits contracted by roughly 25,000 between sampling spans, moving below the 4.85-million level for the first time since the November 2008 survey period. At 63.2% in April, the breadth of hiring across private industries over the latest three months – a leading indicator of prospective payroll growth remained well above the 50% breakeven mark. In contrast to the cooler conditions prevailing in March and April, temperatures climbed in May, with population-weighted heating degree days falling below the 159 norm for that month. Our forecast assumes that the number of persons unable to work because of bad weather was little different from the 53,000 average posted in May over the past decade. On the technical side, five weeks elapsed between the April and May surveys for the first time since 2008. The failure of the BLS’ estimated seasonal adjustments to adequately account for the longer interval should provide an added lift to the reported job count.
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