Societe Generale is out with its latest Global Economic Outlook note.
And, as usual, they have included the quarterly chart of “swan” risks.
These swans are economic and geopolitical dangers that could shake up global markets if they happen. They are difficult to predict, and if they do occur, it’s really bad news.
There’s an emphasis on political events that have huge implications for the economy.
Top of the list is China’s economic woes: “On China, we have revised up our probability of hard landing back to 30%, but this links to the domestic reform efforts and the government push to reduce moral hazard,” the firm wrote.
On the flipside, the euro area is benefiting from cheap oil, accommodative monetary policy, and a weaker currency. “In addition, there is no longer in aggregate any drag from fiscal policy and a greater share of the structural reforms should begin to bear fruit,” SocGen noted.
Check out all the floating swans below: