Societe Generale is out with its latest quarterly chart of “swan” risks — and it’s looking pretty ominous.
Technically speaking, “black swan” risks are by definition nearly impossible to predict — and when they come, it’s bad.
But the point that SocGen’s swan chart is trying to show is there are economic and geopolitical risks stewing that could seriously rock the economy and the markets if they occur.
Once again, further deterioration in the eurozone area is the most significant downside risk. The risk of a hard economic landing in China “somewhat eased,” according to SocGen.
Additionally, “geopolitical risks are numerous; the most significant risk at the current juncture for financial markets is the Russia-Ukraine crisis,” the analysts state.
Interestingly, the only upside risk to the growth outlook is also in Europe — namely, the “determined growth-friendly euro area policy.”
For months, monetary policy gurus have become increasingly convinced that the European Central Bank would launch a quantitative easing program in its effort to stimulate the region.
“Structural reform and stronger coordination of fiscal policies in the euro area offer the most significant upside surprise, but the probability appears low,” the report states.
Check out all the stewing swans below.
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