Every three months, the analysts at Societe Generale update their chart of “black swan” risks in their quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” report.
These risks are the unlikely events that could rock the economy and financial markets.
To no one’s surprise, the risk of an emerging market crisis is moving further away from the tail, which means it is becoming more likely.
“Risks have become more balanced for the advanced economies, but shifted to the downside for emerging economies,” they write. “As the Fed prepares to taper, the focus is on US Treasury yields. It would take a substantial upward leap in US Treasuries to make the Fed reverse its strategy. Our central scenario assumes the US 10-year yield at 3.75% by this time next year.”
“In emerging economies, risks have clearly shifted to the downside and notably for the BIITS (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa),” they continued. “Geopolitical tensions, moreover, add to these downside risks via the oil price channel. SG’s oil specialist, Mike Wittner, sees only a temporary spike from Syria, assuming there is no significant contagion. In China, the risks centre on the credit channels and taming of the shadow banking sector. A hard landing for China would see a hard landing for the global economy too.”
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