LONDON — A group of academics believes it has found a means by which to quantify how successful, or unsuccessful, Britain’s final Brexit deal is, once talks conclude in March 2019.
Writing in a new paper, Professor Hans Blokland, alongside Sarah Coughlan, Nils Wadt and Patrick Sullivan, analysed another recent paper released by policy group The UK in a Changing Europe titled “A Successful Brexit: Four Economic Tests” — before coming to their own conclusions about what outcomes are needed to consider Brexit to be a success.
“This paper is intended to offer a broader perspective on what a successful Brexit could look like, both for the UK and the remaining member states,” Blokland writes in the introduction to the paper.
Using the UK in a Changing Europe paper as a framework for their own research Blokland et al not only analysed the previous paper, but also provided four key areas they believe need to be satisfied for Brexit to be considered a success.
Those areas are as follows:
- “We find that a successful Brexit can only be one that does not threaten political stability across Europe.”
- A successful Brexit is one that “protects the rights and freedoms of British citizens at home and resident in EU member states, and likewise guarantees the rights of EU citizens resident in Britain,” the group argue.
- “The EU and the UK’s ability to continue to cooperate on issues of national and international security will be a key indicator of a successful Brexit,” the report finds.
- “Finally, we find that Britain’s freedom to push back against multinational forces and become a pioneer in areas like climate change and renewable energy would mark a successful Brexit.”
Now that Britain has triggered Article 50, Britain can now officially enter the two-year period to negotiate its exit from the EU. However, the start of talks is likely to be delayed by upcoming big political events in the EU like the French presidential election.
Negotiations have hit a stumbling block before they have even begun however, with a conflict over how discussions will actually proceed. The bloc’s key negotiators are insisting that a settlement is reached on how big a so-called “divorce bill” Britain must pay on leaving the EU before any other section of Brexit talks can begin.
By contrast, Prime Minister Theresa May and her government want to conduct discussions in parallel, agreeing the terms of the exit deal, as well as the country’s future relationship with the 27-nation bloc at the same time.
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