Societe Generale is out with its latest quarterly chart of swan risks — and “black swans continue to dominate.”
Technically speaking, “black swan” risks are by definition nearly impossible to predict. And when they come, it’s bad.
But the point that SocGen’s swan chart is trying to show is there are economic and geopolitical risks stewing that could seriously rock the economy and the markets if they occur.
This time around, Europe is front and center for political risks. “As we head to press, the risk of a Greek default and possibly Grexit remains very real,” according to SocGen. “Medium-term, our concern is that the UK referendum on EU membership (by end-2017) could see a Brexit.”
Another risk is China hard landing, aka GDP growth falling below 5%, which could happen following a “miscalculation of how much financial risk management or structural reform the system can handle,” according to SocGen.
On the positive end, the two upside risks are higher expected multipliers and the possibility of fast track reform, especially in the euro area.
Check out all the stewing swans below.