Photo: Société Générale
SocGen’s top commodities strategist Mike Wittner recently revealed his forecast for oil in 2013, and he thinks the world’s most important commodity is headed lower.Although oil has bounced since June, Wittner doesn’t see these levels holding much longer.
In a note to clients accompanying this presentation, Wittner wrote that “the sluggish ‘muddling through’ macro environment and macro downside risks will set the ceiling for the trading range, along with the possibility of a strategic reserves release by IEA countries. Persistent geopolitical risks in Iran and Syria will set the floor, along with market expectations of EU and US policy stimulus (liquidity injections in the form of bond purchases).”
Wittner really drills down into the numbers underlying these predictions in the following slides to give a complete picture of the state of the oil market right now and how it’s likely to evolve over the next years.
Note: Thanks to Société Générale for giving us permission to feature this presentation.
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