SocGen’s Dylan Grice is out wth a fresh dose of catnip for goldbugs, tinfoil hat wearers, and anti-Feders.
His latest note is titled: When To Sell Gold.
But before he gets to the answer draws a royal flush of anti-Fed memes.
For example, he makes this famous comparison.
Though developed market governments are insolvent by any reasonable definition, it’s far from inevitable that this insolvency will precipitate an extreme inflationary event … it’s just that it might … And although I’ve wondered aloud if Ben Bernanke is in fact the reincarnation of Rudolf von Havenstein – the tragic president of the German Reichsbank who presided over the Weimar Hyperinflation (speculative evidence presented below) – I don’t think he actually is … it’s just that he, and other central bankers, might be closer than they think …
We’re really not sure whether Grice purposely mislabled the pictures of the two central bankers or not.
Then he blasts economists for not understanding the appeal of gold:
…because economists look down on disciplines which might teach them it, such as history, because they aren’t mathematical enough. True, historians don’t use maths (primarily because they don’t have physics envy) but what they do use is common sense, and an understanding that while the economic laws might hold in the long run, in the short run the political beast must be fed.
Then he busts out the famous chart, which we’ve all seen, of how the Romans debased their silver.
Then finally he reveals when people should sell their gold:
Eventually, there will be a crisis of such magnitude that the political winds change direction, and become blustering gales forcing us onto the course of fiscal sustainability. Until it does, the temptation to inflate will remain, as will economists with spurious mathematical rationalisations as to why such inflation will make everything OK (witness the IMF’s recent recommendation that inflation targets be raised to 4%: IMF Tells Bankers to Rethink Inflation – WSJ). Until it does, the outlook will remain favourable for gold. But eventually, majority opinion will accept the painful contractionary medicine because it will have to. That will be the time to sell gold.
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