The European Central Bank is set to announce its first monetary-policy decision of the year on Thursday, and basically, everyone expects the bank to announce a quantitative-easing program.
In a note on Tuesday, Kit Juckes at Societe Generale outlined the results of a recent client survey showing that about 70% of the 176 clients polled expect the ECB to announce QE this week.
The survey also found that most respondents expect a program of somewhere between €500 billion and €1 trillion.
Earlier on Tuesday, Business Insider’s Mike Bird, citing commentary from analysts at Deutsche Bank, took a look at how an ECB QE program could come in larger than the €500 billion that has been most widely cited as the consensus expectation ahead of Thursday’s announcement.
Bird reported that it’s still unclear exactly what form the ECB’s program will take, but its almost certain to be far less straightforward than, say, the US Federal Reserve’s program of buying Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
Elsewhere in SocGen’s survey, about 25% of respondents think Greece will leave the eurozone in the next two years, about 70% of respondents see the euro finishing the year between 1 and 1.10 against the US dollar, and more than half of respondents declined to reveal their positioning on the euro/Swiss franc trade.
Thursday’s ECB meeting is the first one taking place under the bank’s new six-week spacing, instead of its former monthly schedule. So if it feels like it’s been a long time coming, that’s because it has been.
But on Thursday we will finally find out if the ECB is joining the QE party.
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