Typically, betting on the World Cup involves a trip down your corner agent in the UK or a visit to paddypower.com, but Societe Generale are suggesting you play the tournament by getting in a contrarian bet on the economic growth of the winner.
Typically, its assumed that the host country and the winner get a huge economic boost from the tournament.
FT Alphaville reports that Soc Gen analysts think the host assessment is true, they say the other half is a complete farce.
SocGen are therefore advising you go long on South Africa, via the JSE South Africa index, and short some potential winners’ exchanges, like Argentina’s Merval or Brazil’s Bovespa.
Right now its actually Spain, England, and Brazil in the lead to win the tournament, according to William Hill and Paddy Power. Anyone of them would make a good bet to win the cup, but two of them stand out as targets for the SocGen short strategy, with skyrocketing debt burdens.
We think we will be shorting Germany, if you know what we mean.
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