SocGen expects US payrolls to smash expectations

Bull cowboy rodeoREUTERS/Eric ThayerA competitor adjusts his hat before the gate opens for him to begin his ride, during the Professional Bull Riders invitational at Madison Square Garden in New York, January 6, 2013.

From SocGen’s Brian Jones:

The April employment report should more than reverse the weakness in March. Our forecast for a 315k job gain is underpinned by three factors. Firstly, claims data point to an above-trend increase. Second, weather should provide a boost as the number of people who could not work due to bad weather was slightly elevated in March. This should be reversed given the above-normal temperatures in April. Lastly, the March survey week ended relatively early, resulting in a five-week span between the two surveys. We have found the April five-week effect to be statistically significant and ‘worth’ about 120k jobs.

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