SocGen economist Brian Jones has snatched the crown for the most bullish analyst on Wall Street, at least when it comes to this Friday’s jobs report.
He predicts a 275K non-farm payroll gain, and an unemployment rate of just 8.1%.
A gain of 275K would be the best in 6 years!
The basis for his call is basically fundamental (the ongoing grind lower in jobless claims) and weather-related (the warm winter supported more hiring).
He offers up a chart comparing total continuing jobless claims as a percentage of the population (red line) vs. the unemployment rate (blue line), noting that the unemployment rate is likely to track the hard drop in the former.
Actually, SocGen’s chart is a touch different, as he looks at the “augmented insured rate”, although we’re not totally sure what that means. Regardless, the gist remains the same.
Regardless, Jones is calling for a monster.
That being said Jones’ call is consistent with what we said this past week, that based on auto sales, it looks like February could have been a blowout. Now we just have to wait until Friday.