The growth glory days are over for Sirius XM: The company’s new long-term growth forecast calls for single-digit year-over-year subscriber growth at least through 2013.
Specifically, Sirius (SIRI) expects to grow its subscriber base 10% this year, then 8% in 2009; 7% in 2010; 9% in 2011 and 2012; and 8% in 2013. That’s average growth of 1.9 million net subscribers a year through 2013 — a sharp slowdown from 2007 and earlier.
Why so slow? Sirius depends on the auto industry, which is in the toilet, for most of its growth. And competition is rising — don’t count out the wireless industry, for example.
Sirius XM expects positive free cash flow in 2010, rising to $1.4 billion in 2013. Shares are up 3 cents to $0.29 today.