Precious metals got off to a blistering start in 2016. Gold rallied 44% to more than $1,366 per ounce as the commodity bull market kicked into high gear following the uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s vote to exit the European Union. And its less popular cousin, silver, soared nearly 50% over the same time frame, reaching a two-year high of $20.62 per ounce.
However, things haven’t gone the way that the commodity bulls have hoped. Brexit ended up not being the end of the world that everyone had predicted, and the flight to safety turned into a scramble for risk assets. Silver tumbled into a bear market, down 20% from its August 2 high, despite Donald Trump’s election win supposedly being bullish for precious metals as his protectionist trade and immigration policies and plans for massive infrastructure spending are expected to bring back inflation to the United States.
But things have started to turn around lately. Silver held support near $16 per ounce and has climbed more than 5% off its November low to near $17.20. Raymond James Chief Market Technician Andrew Adams wrote in a note on Wednesday, silver has some “technical hope” and may make for “an interesting investment once more.”
And if the technicals don’t do it for you, there’s Wednesday’s note from Deutsche Bank Chief International Economist Torsten Sløk, which says inflation expectations have continued to trend higher after the election. This is important because one of the first things you learn in an economics class is that the expectation of higher inflation leads to higher inflation.
Sløk wrote, “I think inflation expectations will trend higher as Europe and the US move closer to full employment and markets continue to realise that the Fed and the ECB can exit after almost a decade of emergency monetary policy.”
It appears silver isn’t getting the attention it deserves.