In early September, we identified 9 signs that the double dip was almost certainly toast.Since then, markets have rallied massively, and the economic news has only improved.
Whether you’re looking at financial markets or real-world economic activity, there are signs all over the place that the nail is being hammered right now in the coffin of the double dippers.
Yes, the US still has serious structural problems but for now, things are looking up.
One of the arguments made by the bears is that Q3 GDP growth was driven by inventory restocking, and that will fade in Q4 when demand is sapped up. But holiday hiring is off to a very fast start, suggesting that retailers do see demand materialising this quarter.
Last Friday's jobs report was very strong (relative to expectations).
Why? Because the bleeding at the state & local level is coming to an end, as higher tax receipts relieve the pressure to chop jobs.
Laugh, but it's hard to argue with the idea that people will be more comfortable spending this quarter as they see the value of their stock holdings swell.
Another classic sign of a recovery... the metal with a 'PhD in economics' is near all-time highs, thanks to robust demand around the world.
Ok, maybe you're not convinced that the stock market rise is meaningful, but the long bond -- which people buy when they're terrified of growth not being there -- is clearly rolling over.
Auto sales are surging, and you can't cite stimulus or cash-for-clunkers. These are real, big-ticket items that people have to borrow money to buy.
This quarter companies easily beat expectations, but most importantly, companies hiked guidance massively. Obviously the companies could be wrong, but there was very little by way of dour forecasting in this quarter's announcements.