13 Signs That The Double Dip Is Now Toast

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In early September, we identified 9 signs that the double dip was almost certainly toast.Since then, markets have rallied massively, and the economic news has only improved.

Whether you’re looking at financial markets or real-world economic activity, there are signs all over the place that the nail is being hammered right now in the coffin of the double dippers.

Yes, the US still has serious structural problems but for now, things are looking up.

ISM Manufacturing

In what was our first clear look at Q4 economic activity, the ISM unexpectedly jumped in October, marking a very bullish sign for ongoing strength in manufacturing.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

ISM services also came in surprisingly robust.

ISM Leading Indicators

Even within the ISM, the signs are very bullish. New Orders minus Inventories, which is seen as a key leading indicator, spiked in October.

Small Business Hiring

For the first time in ages, small businesses say they're upping their hiring plans in October, according to the NFIB.

Holiday hiring is hot

One of the arguments made by the bears is that Q3 GDP growth was driven by inventory restocking, and that will fade in Q4 when demand is sapped up. But holiday hiring is off to a very fast start, suggesting that retailers do see demand materialising this quarter.

Weak Dollar

Everybody hates the weak dollar... except US manufacturers. In Q4 it will help narrow the trade deficit, and provide a boost to GDP.

State and Local Layoffs Abating

Last Friday's jobs report was very strong (relative to expectations).

Why? Because the bleeding at the state & local level is coming to an end, as higher tax receipts relieve the pressure to chop jobs.

Stock Market Rising

Laugh, but it's hard to argue with the idea that people will be more comfortable spending this quarter as they see the value of their stock holdings swell.

Copper Rising

Another classic sign of a recovery... the metal with a 'PhD in economics' is near all-time highs, thanks to robust demand around the world.

Long-bond rolling over

Ok, maybe you're not convinced that the stock market rise is meaningful, but the long bond -- which people buy when they're terrified of growth not being there -- is clearly rolling over.

Consumer Credit

For the first time in ages, total consumer credit is growing

October car sales

Auto sales are surging, and you can't cite stimulus or cash-for-clunkers. These are real, big-ticket items that people have to borrow money to buy.

Earnings...

This quarter companies easily beat expectations, but most importantly, companies hiked guidance massively. Obviously the companies could be wrong, but there was very little by way of dour forecasting in this quarter's announcements.

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