CME – S&P 500 INDEX (June) – Daily
Near Term Trend: Positive
Friday’s Close: 1341.00 (-1.40)
UPDATE: Once we predicted the recent retrace toward 1288.00, and the market subsequently dropped to 1291.70 (basically on our target), five trading days ago, it has been off to the races. Last Thursday, the market posted a large gain, however Friday was an inside day (I like to call a hangover day). For now- the U.S. government posturing may impede the Index’s progress. Recall last Thursday night we stated – Resistance between 1350.00 & 1360.00 is formidable.
Recall my trade secret – The slope of the 21-Day Moving Average Line remained positive for at least fifteen trading days (our proprietary 15 day rule), therefore that implied the “crowd” remained long at that juncture, and even a downside violation of the Moving Average Line, which took place a week ago, would be an opportunity to go long (ie. a dip to buy) – which in fact was the case last week.
NYMEX – CRUDE OIL – Weekly
Intermediate Trend (3 Months): Neutral
Friday’s Close: $99.64 (+.23 cents)
Over two months ago as the market was trading near $100.00 / barrel we predicted a test of $89.00 was possible”. Hence, five weeks ago, the market traded down to $89.69, fulfilled our prediction, and to date, the $89.00 region continues to remain the low
Our blueproprietary up-trend line (we based our $89 objective on that critical support), continues to define the uptrend, and the 100-Day M. A. (green) Line is positive, as the price consolidation near $100.00 continues.
Near term support stands at $94.00.
YMEX – GOLD (August) – Daily
NearTerm Trend – Positive
Thursday Trade: $1,617.40 (+ $15.90 cents)
UPDATE: We are short from $1,604.00.
We are risking very little on this trade since we are clearly fighting a bull trend. Keep the stop at $1,609.40 (daily close only) for Monday.
Initially, upon going short, we were positive roughly $2,300 on two occasions, but Friday’s bi-partisan stall in the debt ceiling talks (which will eventually be resolved without default to the U.S., Treasury) is allowing Gold to spike through our stop as Monday’s trading day begins.