The drawback of low oil prices on business spending is over, according to one economist.
The durable goods orders report for October, released on Wednesday, showed that “core” capital goods orders, which exclude volatile aircraft and defence orders, rose 1.3% month-on-month, topping forecasts.
And for Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian Shepherdson, this rise builds on an upward trend showing a “modest revival” for capital expenditures, which have been impacted in a big way by the pullback in oil-related investment over the last year.
In a note to clients on Wednesday, Shepherdson wrote:
“The trend in core capex orders is now clearly turning higher, following the collapse triggered by the rollover in oil companies’ spending. That’s now over, and the underlying upward trend in place before the oil hit is re-emerging. In short, this is a solid report, pointing to a strong start for Q4 equipment spending.”
The year-on-year trend, however, is still weak, as compared to last year core capital goods orders fell 3.8%.
And as we noted last month, a tracker of this yearly change — the so-called McCulley indicator named after former PIMCO managing director Paul McCulley — fell to a six-year low.
However, it’s no big surprise that orders have not rebounded year-on-year because the plunge in oil prices will still take a few months to roll off.
But the big call here is that Shepherdson sees the trend that weighed on overall business orders in the first half of this year finally coming to an end.
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